*** Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction describes a motley crew of so-called superforecasters who for many years have undertaken to predict very tough global events, from the price of gas to conflicts between China and Japan — and have regularly beat specialists at it! My favorite aspect of the book is the careful analysis of what makes a superforcaster: intelligent (but not off the chart intelligent), well informed and especially curious, about everything and anything, able to break apart problems into logical pieces, patient, and, wonderfully, humble. I want to meet them all.

 

The optimistic message of the book is that even very difficult issues can be decoded and that the world is not as frighteningly random as we may think. (And never believe the media pundits: they are the very opposite of superforecasters.)  A wonderful book about decision making.

 

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